Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
